Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.004033 0.004239 0.004450 0.004683 0.004933 0.005194 0.005486
2025-01-05 0.003614 0.003916 0.004239 0.004611 0.005029 0.005487 0.006028
2025-01-12 0.003397 0.003757 0.004153 0.004623 0.005169 0.005788 0.006547
2025-01-19 0.003128 0.003511 0.003940 0.004462 0.005083 0.005805 0.006717
2025-01-26 0.003008 0.003422 0.003896 0.004483 0.005199 0.006053 0.007163
2025-02-02 0.002962 0.003414 0.003940 0.004606 0.005436 0.006452 0.007811
2025-02-09 0.002831 0.003296 0.003845 0.004550 0.005445 0.006562 0.008092
2025-02-16 0.002739 0.003219 0.003793 0.004543 0.005510 0.006742 0.008469
2025-02-23 0.002647 0.003136 0.003730 0.004515 0.005545 0.006879 0.008791
2025-03-02 0.002597 0.003104 0.003727 0.004562 0.005676 0.007148 0.009304
2025-03-09 0.002514 0.003027 0.003663 0.004525 0.005692 0.007258 0.009597
2025-03-16 0.002437 0.002953 0.003599 0.004485 0.005700 0.007355 0.009875
2025-03-23 0.002344 0.002858 0.003506 0.004405 0.005653 0.007378 0.010051
2025-03-30 0.002262 0.002774 0.003426 0.004339 0.005622 0.007422 0.010261
2025-04-06 0.002215 0.002735 0.003404 0.004351 0.005699 0.007622 0.010720
2025-04-13 0.002110 0.002616 0.003270 0.004202 0.005541 0.007469 0.010616
2025-04-20 0.002075 0.002588 0.003257 0.004222 0.005625 0.007679 0.011099
2025-04-27 0.002076 0.002608 0.003310 0.004335 0.005850 0.008111 0.011971
2025-05-04 0.002018 0.002547 0.003249 0.004283 0.005827 0.008159 0.012206
2025-05-11 0.001978 0.002510 0.003221 0.004276 0.005870 0.008312 0.012627
2025-05-18 0.001935 0.002465 0.003180 0.004251 0.005883 0.008416 0.012969
2025-05-25 0.001916 0.002455 0.003187 0.004294 0.006004 0.008698 0.013645
2025-06-01 0.001873 0.002410 0.003143 0.004260 0.006001 0.008778 0.013958